El Niño tops 3°C in September as forecasts point to a strong event

El Niño has pushed sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific’s Niño 3.4 monitoring region above 3 degrees Celsius over average in September, an unusually early mark that points to a potentially very strong event, according to NOAA data cited in reports. The World Meteorological Organization expects the pattern to intensify, with its peak forecast toward the end of 2026 or early 2027. Its eventual strength and regional effects remain uncertain. The temperature anomaly is notable because El Niño events typically reach their strongest point later in the year. Forecast models cited in reports project further warming, but their results are not guarantees. The WMO has forecast a very strong event; it does not officially use the term “super El Niño.” El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring Pacific climate pattern that alters winds and shifts rainfall, increasing the likelihood of wetter conditions in some regions and drought or heat in others. The current event is a natural climate pattern, while global warming raises the baseline temperature against which its effects occur.