El Niño linked to projection of 451,000 extra heat deaths

The University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab projects that unusually strong El Niño conditions could be associated with 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide from June 2026 through February 2027, compared with deaths expected in a typical year. The estimate is a forecast, not a count of deaths already observed, and depends on seasonal temperature projections and modeled links between heat and mortality. The report estimates global land temperatures during the event could be about 1.2°C higher than in a typical year, with extremely hot days 44% more frequent. It says poorer regions that already experience high temperatures are likely to face the greatest projected burden, in part because access to cooling, reliable water and health services can be more limited. The Sahel is projected to see about 66,800 additional deaths. The report also identifies Indonesia, India and Brazil among countries facing major projected tolls, with estimates of 19,300, 15,800 and 13,300 additional deaths, respectively. It projects a combined 19,400 deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.