Dengue risk grows in Europe as Aedes albopictus spreads northward

Dengue fever, long confined to tropical and subtropical regions, is increasingly likely to appear in Britain and other major European cities as climate change expands the habitat of the Aedes albopictus mosquito that transmits the virus. Global case numbers surged last year, with about 14.6 million dengue infections reported in 2024 and the disease now endemic in more than 100 countries. In Europe, transmission remains predominantly imported, but surveillance and modeling indicate the potential for local outbreaks in several large cities, prompting renewed emphasis on preparation and surveillance.

New modeling and surveillance collaborations suggest the Asian tiger mosquito could establish itself in northern parts of Europe far sooner than previously thought. The research shows that in France the mosquito’s northern advance has accelerated markedly in the past two decades, moving from roughly four miles per year in 2006 to about 12 miles per year by 2024. Extrapolations from this trend point to northern France potentially hosting the vector within a decade, after which it could reach London and other capitals that are already climatically suitable. Major Central European cities...