Democrats Favored in Midterm Forecasts, Control Unsettled

Democrats entered the November 3, 2026, U.S. midterm elections with forecasts favoring gains in the House and a possible Senate takeover, but control of Congress remained unsettled as voting continued. The forecasts reflected polling and turnout indicators, not election results. One forecast cited in pre-election coverage put Democrats’ chances of winning the House above 90% and their chances of flipping the Senate at 72%. Those estimates came from CNN’s John Berman and data analyst Harry Enten. The same account put the Republicans’ chance of retaining the Senate at 29%. Early-voting figures also suggested a Democratic advantage, though they did not establish how the final vote would break. Democrats accounted for 43% of early votes cast, compared with 31% for Republicans, according to figures cited in pre-election reporting. The effect of early voting would become clear only after polls closed and ballots were counted. Polling analysts and political commentators emphasized that surveys can miss the final result. A right-leaning pre-election commentary predicted Democrats would lose the House, while describing the Senate contest as close and allowing for Republican upsets. It...