Climate Impact Lab projects 451,000 heat deaths by February 2027

The University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab projects that the current El Niño episode could be associated with about 451,000 excess heat deaths worldwide through February 2027, including approximately 15,800 in India between September 2026 and February 2027. The figures are forecasts, not observed deaths, and compare projected mortality with what would occur in a normal year. The report estimates that 239,000 of the global total could occur during the six-month period from September through February. It also projects 44 percent more extremely hot days than in a normal year and global land temperatures 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal during the episode. The estimates draw on temperature forecasts and models of how heat relates to deaths in more than 24,000 regions, according to the report’s descriptions. The largest projected regional toll is in Africa’s Sahel, where Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad could see about 66,800 additional deaths over six months. Nigeria alone accounts for a projected 31,400. The report also estimates 19,400 additional deaths combined across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, and 19,300 in Indonesia.