Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro Near in Polls Before First Round

Brazil’s presidential race is closely contested ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with polls placing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro near one another and a runoff considered likely if neither wins more than half of valid votes. The polls differ in their estimates, and none establishes who will win. A Datafolha survey of 2,506 people conducted September 29 to October 1 gave Lula 42% and Bolsonaro 38% in the first round. In a simulated runoff, Lula led 48% to 45%, a result described as a technical tie given the poll’s two-percentage-point margin of error. A separate AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg, surveyed September 23 to 28 among 5,005 people, put Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42% in the first round. Its simulated runoff was effectively even: Bolsonaro had 47.7% and Lula 47.6%, within the poll’s one-percentage-point margin of error. The surveys reflect different samples and field dates, so their figures are not directly interchangeable. Under the reported election rules, a candidate must receive more than 50% of valid first-round votes to win outright.