Adobe forecasts US online holiday sales reach $253.4B in 2025

Adobe Analytics projects U.S. online holiday sales will reach $253.4 billion between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2025, a 5.3 percent increase from last year, as retailers prepare for a season shaped by mobile shopping, buy now, pay later payments, and growing use of generative AI. The forecast, based on more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and roughly 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories, also anticipates heavy concentration of spending during Cyber Week and broad early-season activity in October.

Adobe expects Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, to generate $43.7 billion, about 17.2 percent of the season’s total. Cyber Monday is projected to be the single biggest day, at $14.2 billion, while Black Friday is forecast at $11.7 billion. The company sees 10 individual days this season with more than $5 billion in online spending.

Mobile devices are forecast to drive a majority of holiday ecommerce for the first time, capturing 56.1 percent of sales, or $142.7 billion. Buy now, pay later transactions are expected to grow 11 percent to $20.2 billion for the season, with Adobe projecting more than $1 billion in BNPL spend on Cyber Monday. The...