2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Below Normal, NOAA

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, with federal forecasters predicting a below-normal level of activity due to a developing El Niño climate pattern. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts eight to 14 named storms, with three to six becoming hurricanes and one to three of those reaching major hurricane strength.

Officials emphasize that a quieter seasonal forecast does not eliminate risk for coastal or inland communities. The director of the National Hurricane Center noted that heavy rainfall and flooding, which have been the deadliest hazards in recent years, can occur even from storms that make landfall hundreds of miles away. Distant storms can also generate dangerous rip currents along coastlines. Forecasters and emergency managers consistently warn that it only takes one landfalling storm to create a devastating season, citing past examples like Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which occurred during a below-average year.

The anticipated El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, typically increases wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean. This atmospheric condition inhibits...