WMO sees 80% chance of El Niño by August, heat risk rises

A major El Niño climate event is highly likely to develop in the coming months, significantly increasing the risk of extreme weather and higher global temperatures, according to a new forecast from the World Meteorological Organization. The United Nations weather agency reports an 80 percent probability of El Niño emerging between June and August, with the likelihood rising to near or above 90 percent by November.

The phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is expected to be at least moderate and potentially strong. Observational data shows sea surface temperatures in a key monitoring region approaching El Niño thresholds from late April to mid-May. This surface warming is being driven by a substantial reservoir of heat beneath the ocean, with subsurface temperatures recorded at more than six degrees Celsius above average.

El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months, altering global atmospheric circulation and influencing weather patterns worldwide. The WMO warns the event will exacerbate existing climate risks. For the June to August period, above-normal...