WMO predicts temps near record, 75% chance of 1.5°C breach

Global average temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels for the next five years, with a high probability of temporarily exceeding a key international climate threshold, according to a new forecast from the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization. The report, produced in collaboration with the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office, projects that the period from 2026 to 2030 will see unprecedented warmth and significant regional climate impacts.

There is a 75 percent chance that the five-year mean temperature for 2026-2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average from 1850-1900. Furthermore, there is a 91 percent chance that at least one individual year within that period will temporarily surpass that 1.5-degree mark. The 1.5-degree threshold is the more ambitious limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit long-term warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius. Scientists note that even temporary breaches increase risks to ecosystems like coral reefs and glaciers.

The report also states there is an 86 percent chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. A predicted El...