WMO forecasts 80% chance El Niño developing June–August

Global weather agencies are forecasting the imminent arrival of an El Niño climate pattern, which is expected to develop in the coming weeks and could significantly disrupt weather worldwide for the next year. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) states there is an 80% chance El Niño conditions will develop between June and August 2026, with a more than 90% probability they will persist through at least November.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It alters atmospheric circulation, leading to a cascade of global weather impacts. Scientists note that sea surface temperatures in the region are currently about 6 degrees Celsius above average in some areas, and subsurface ocean heat is also unusually high. These conditions have led forecasters to warn this event could strengthen rapidly into a "super" or "very strong" El Niño, a classification reached when sea surface temperatures rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above average for an extended period.

The potential global consequences are wide-ranging. The WMO warns El Niño typically exacerbates drought and heavy...