War Reshapes Global Energy Order

Six months after U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict has fundamentally reshaped global energy markets, transforming temporary disruption into a structural challenge for producers, governments, and investors. The war has severely restricted the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, weakened OPEC's traditional market power, and accelerated a search for new resources and infrastructure, even as crude prices have shown unexpected resilience. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global seaborne oil, has fallen to a three-month low of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day as of August 2026. This disruption, combined with attacks on regional infrastructure, has cut global oil supply by more than 5 million barrels per day relative to prewar levels. Iran's own exports have plummeted by 85% to around 250,000 barrels per day, contributing to domestic inflation reaching 66% in July. The physical constraints on shipping have sent Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) tanker rates soaring to reported highs of $650,000 per day, making transportation itself a major component of the supply bottleneck.