Wallets Bet 70,000 on US-Iran Ceasefire Amid Insider Suspicions

A cluster of newly created cryptocurrency wallets has placed bets totaling around 70,000 on the Polymarket prediction platform, wagering that the United States and Iran will agree to a ceasefire by March 31, 2025. The activity, detected in late March, has sparked suspicions of insider trading among blockchain analysts, given the wallets' apparent links to earlier profitable predictions about U.S. military actions against Iran.

The bets emerged from eight accounts created around March 21, 2025, which purchased shares in the "Yes" outcome for a formal ceasefire agreement. According to platform data, these positions could yield nearly 820,000 if the event resolves affirmatively, requiring public confirmation from both governments that military hostilities have halted. The timing aligns closely with public statements from President Donald Trump, who initially escalated rhetoric against Iran but later suggested on social media a potential wind-down of operations. Polymarket's estimated probability for the ceasefire jumped from 6 percent on March 21 to 24 percent shortly after, with overall trading volume on the market exceeding 21 million.

This is not the first instance of such...