UK March CPI Set for 3.3% Rise on Fuel Surge

The Office for National Statistics will release its March Consumer Prices Index data on Wednesday at 6:00 a.m. GMT, with economists forecasting a rise in inflation to 3.3 percent year-over-year, the highest level since December. This anticipated increase, up from 3 percent in February, stems largely from surging fuel costs triggered by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The data release comes amid heightened volatility in energy markets following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February, which prompted retaliatory actions and disrupted oil supplies. Analysts attribute the expected uptick primarily to higher petrol and diesel prices, marking the first official figures to capture the full impact of these events on British households. According to RAC data from April 16, the average price of petrol reached 158.1 pence per liter, a 25-pence increase from the start of the conflict on February 28. Diesel prices climbed to 191.2 pence per liter, up 49 pence over the same period. Economists at Oxford Economics estimate that these elevated pump prices alone will contribute 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points to March's inflation rate.

Headline inflation is projected to reflect...