Fed expected to hold rates as markets watch Warsh

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, with investors looking to Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for clues about whether officials may raise rates in December. Markets put the probability of holding the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% at about 90%, according to futures-based estimates. The decision is scheduled for 19:00 CET, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 19:30 CET. The Fed’s policy outcome and the chair’s comments had not yet been announced in reports published before the meeting. Market estimates put the chance of a quarter-point increase in December between 73% and 80%, depending on the measure cited. Those figures describe expectations, not a commitment by the Fed. Investors are watching for any indication of the timing and extent of further tightening, as well as whether Warsh will offer explicit guidance about future decisions. The anticipated hold follows a rate increase in September, the Fed’s first in three years, and comes amid persistent inflation. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, reached 2.6%,...