Texas Senate poll shows Democrat Talarico ahead of Paxton

A new poll shows Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico leading Republican incumbent Ken Paxton in Texas, a significant shift in a race that could determine control of the chamber. The survey, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research from July 15 to July 17, found Talarico, a state representative from Austin, with 45 percent support among likely voters compared to Paxton's 40 percent. This marks Talarico's largest lead in any public poll of the general election period.

The poll of 1,048 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, revealed several key dynamics. Talarico holds a commanding advantage among independent voters, with less than a quarter supporting Paxton. Perhaps most notably, Talarico leads among voters without a college degree by nine percentage points, a demographic that has consistently favored Republicans in Texas and nationally in recent elections. Paxton also showed weaker support from his own party's voters than in other recent surveys, with nearly one in five Republican respondents saying they were undecided or planned to vote for Talarico.

This result marks a shift from several polls conducted in June, which...