Study projects climate change could nearly triple Europe’s annual burned area by 2100

A study published Thursday warns that climate change could nearly triple the area burned by wildfires annually in Europe by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions remain high, potentially overwhelming firefighting capacities and spreading blazes into regions with little historical experience of them. The research comes as the continent battles a severe wildfire season that has scorched hundreds of thousands of acres.

The study, published in the journal Global Change Biology, was led by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). It projects that under a low-emissions scenario with a global temperature rise of about 1.8 degrees Celsius, approximately 39% more land could be burned annually by 2100 compared to current levels. However, if emissions remain high and warming reaches roughly 3.6 degrees Celsius, models indicate a potential 192% increase in annual burned area, with fires becoming widespread across the Mediterranean and into Western and Central Europe, including countries like Belgium and the Netherlands that have rarely faced significant wildfire threats.

"Our results indicate there could be widespread increases in burned area even...