Study models potential global population halving by 2064

A new mathematical model exploring long-term human population dynamics suggests that, under a severe worst-case scenario, the global population could potentially halve by 2064. The research, published in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, was conducted by Alessio Zaccone of the University of Milan and his late colleague Kostya Trachenko.

The study analyzed 12,000 years of population data and developed a single equation that accurately reproduces major historical growth patterns, from the Neolithic era to the modern age. The authors stress that their projection of a population crash is not a forecast but an illustrative mathematical scenario intended to demonstrate how sensitive global population dynamics could be to abrupt environmental or societal changes.

The hypothetical scenario explored in the paper assumes that Earth's sustainable carrying capacity—the maximum number of people the planet can support indefinitely—suddenly drops to around two billion people due to a major crisis. Such a crisis could include climate collapse, a global pandemic, widespread conflict, or severe resource shortages. Under this assumption, the model predicts a rapid global decline, with the...