Study finds 7% to 16% of vascular plants may lose most habitat by 2100

A significant portion of the world's plant species faces a high risk of extinction by the end of this century as climate change shrinks their suitable habitats, according to a new scientific study. The research indicates that climate change is becoming a primary driver of species loss, potentially altering familiar landscapes globally.

Researchers modeled the future ranges for more than 67,000 species of vascular plants, which constitute nearly all the world's plants with water and nutrient-carrying tissues. This sample represents about 18 percent of known vascular plants. The analysis, which examined millions of plant location records and greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the period 2081-2100, found that between 7 and 16 percent of these species could lose over 90 percent of their range, placing them at high risk of extinction. Examples include the rare Catalina ironwood tree endemic to California, ancient bluish spikemoss, and roughly one-third of Australia's iconic Eucalyptus species.

A plant's habitat encompasses a complex combination of conditions including temperature, rainfall, soil, and landscape features. Researchers describe the challenge as plants trying to follow...