Study Estimates 155,000 Undercounted US COVID-19 Deaths

A new study estimates that the United States significantly undercounted COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic's first two years, with as many as 155,000 additional fatalities going unrecognized, primarily among marginalized communities.

Researchers from Boston University and other institutions analyzed death certificate data from March 2020 to December 2021, when official records listed 840,251 COVID-19 deaths. Using a machine learning algorithm trained on hospital deaths—where testing was widespread—they identified patterns in out-of-hospital deaths attributed to conditions like pneumonia, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease. The model predicted these cases were likely COVID-19 related, bringing the total to nearly 996,000 deaths, or about 19 percent more than reported. The findings, published in the journal Science Advances, align closely with prior excess mortality estimates from other studies.

The undercounted deaths disproportionately affected Hispanic individuals, other people of color, older adults, those with lower incomes and education levels, and residents of southern and southwestern states. Alabama, Oklahoma, and South Carolina showed the highest likelihood of missed...