Polls Show Talarico Leading Paxton in Texas Senate Race

A series of recent polls shows Democrat James Talarico holding a narrow but consistent lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for Texas's U.S. Senate seat, marking a significant shift in a contest that was tied just weeks ago. The surveys indicate that Talarico's advantage is driven by strong support from independent voters and women, while Paxton faces persistent questions about his honesty and character.

Multiple polls conducted in late July all place Talarico ahead. A Texas Pulse poll from the Texas A&M Bush School and ReconMR, surveying 619 likely voters from July 27 to July 30, found Talarico leading 47% to 43%. A separate Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 likely voters conducted over the same period showed a similar result, with Talarico ahead 47% to 45%. Earlier surveys from Texas Public Opinion Research and a Fox News poll also showed Talarico with leads of five and three points, respectively. This represents a change from June, when most polls showed the candidates tied.

The movement is largely attributed to a dramatic shift among independent voters. The Texas Pulse poll found Talarico favored by 53% of independents compared to 30% for Paxton, a 23-point...