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Texas Senate Race Remains Close in Final Days

Published 30 October 2026

Texas’s Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains within a narrow polling margin, with surveys released in the final days before the November 3 election showing leads for both candidates. The latest Quantus Insights poll gave Paxton a 1.1-point advantage, while other surveys have placed Talarico ahead or the candidates even. Quantus surveyed 1,221 likely voters from October 26 to 28. It found Paxton at 48.7% and Talarico at 47.6%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 1.4% and 2.2% undecided. The poll reported an approximately 6.4-point margin of error for the difference between the candidates, putting Paxton’s lead within that range. The survey’s early-October poll had Paxton ahead by 0.5 points. The same poll found 54.3% of likely voters said they had already voted. That figure included 51.7% who voted early in person and 2.6% who voted by mail. Among respondents, 59% of Democrats said they had voted, compared with 49% of Republicans and 41% of independents. Quantus said its data indicated that voters who had not yet cast ballots leaned more Republican than those who had. A poll from the TSU Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center...

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