Polls Misjudged Michigan and Wisconsin Democratic Primaries

Polling for the Democratic primaries in Michigan and Wisconsin significantly misjudged the final outcomes, with surveys showing large leads for progressive candidates who ultimately won narrowly or lost. The discrepancies highlight the challenges of forecasting open primary elections, where voter turnout and ideological shifts can be difficult to model.

In Michigan's Senate primary, polls indicated Abdul ElSayed held a double-digit lead over Rep. Haley Stevens. ElSayed ultimately won by a single percentage point, 48.5% to 47.5%. In Wisconsin's gubernatorial primary, surveys showed Francesca Hong leading David Crowley by more than 20 points. Crowley instead defeated Hong by fewer than 4,000 votes statewide.

Analysts pointed to several factors for the misses. Both states hold open primaries, allowing voters to participate without party registration, which complicates identifying likely Democratic voters. Polls also appeared to over-sample younger, more enthusiastic voters who favored the progressive candidates, while under-representing older and more moderate voters who turned out in greater numbers.

"The polls in both races surveyed too many young people and voters who were...