Polls Leave Israel’s Blocs Short of a Knesset Majority

Neither of Israel’s two main political blocs is projected to win a Knesset majority in the October 27 election, leaving Arab parties positioned to influence efforts to form a government, according to polling and statements by party leaders. The projections are estimates, not election results, and Gadi Eisenkot, the opposition bloc’s leader, has said he will not align with Arab parties. A Madad poll fielded October 13 and published October 14 projected 51 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and 50 for Eisenkot’s bloc in the 120-seat Knesset. It gave Arab parties 15 seats combined: nine for the Joint List and six for Raam. The poll surveyed 1,018 respondents and reported a maximum sampling error of 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Other polling cited in reports put the blocs at different totals, but also showed neither on course for a majority. The figures reflect different surveys and should not be read as a single settled forecast. A party needs 3.25% of valid votes to enter the Knesset, and the election’s actual seat distribution will determine the scope of coalition negotiations. Raam leader Mansour Abbas has said Arab leaders could help form a...