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Poll Shows Talarico Leading Cornyn, Paxton in Texas Senate Race

Published 28 April 2026

A new poll shows Democratic state Representative James Talarico leading both potential Republican opponents in the Texas U.S. Senate race by narrow margins within the survey's margin of error.

The survey by Texas Public Opinion Research, conducted April 17 to 20 among 1,018 likely general election voters, found Talarico ahead of U.S. Senator John Cornyn by 44 percent to 41 percent. Against Attorney General Ken Paxton, Talarico led 46 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. The organization describes itself as nonpartisan and focuses on Texans' beliefs, values, and policy preferences.

Talarico, an Austin Democrat, secured the Democratic nomination after winning a competitive primary runoff earlier this year. Cornyn and Paxton advanced to a Republican primary runoff on May 26 to determine their party's nominee for the November general election.

The poll highlights Talarico's strengths among key demographics. He leads Cornyn by 51 points among Black voters and 32 points among Latino voters, and by 56 and 27 points, respectively, against Paxton. Talarico also holds wide advantages with independents, 51 percent to 29 percent versus Cornyn and...

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