iPhone helps 2025 global smartphone market recover, IDC says

A major research firm says Apple’s iPhone is underpinning a modest recovery in the global smartphone market in 2025, lifting overall shipments after months of downward revisions amid trade and economic uncertainty. In its latest quarterly forecast released in August, IDC projected worldwide smartphone shipments will rise about 1 percent year on year to roughly 1.24 billion units, driven by a 3.9 percent increase in iPhone shipments, even as China is expected to contract.

IDC’s revision follows a volatile year for its forecasts. The firm had predicted 2.6 percent growth in February, cut that to 0.6 percent in May amid tariff concerns and weak consumer spending, and now says stronger iOS momentum and healthier replacement demand have nudged the outlook back upward. Nabila Popal, senior research director on IDC’s tracker, said tariff volatility remains a background risk but that demand in most markets and segments remains healthy enough to support shipments.

Apple’s resilience reflects multiple factors identified by IDC. Trade-in programs, installment financing and high customer loyalty have sustained upgrade activity, the firm said, and without the iPhone’s gains the market would...