India's fertility rate falls to 1.9, below replacement

India’s fertility rate has fallen below the level needed to maintain its current population size, according to new government data, a demographic shift that has drawn international attention and highlights significant regional and socioeconomic divides within the country.

The latest figures from the Sample Registration System Statistical Report show India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9 children per woman, slipping below the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time. A decade ago, the rate stood at 2.3. The replacement level is widely regarded as the point at which a population can replace itself from one generation to the next without migration.

The trend is not uniform across the nation. Only six states—Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand—continue to record fertility rates above the replacement level. In contrast, the national capital territory of Delhi has the country’s lowest rate at 1.2, a figure lower than that of Finland. Other states, including Kerala, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu, have also remained well below replacement level for years.

Demographers note the decline has been rapid and widespread, with the...