India Projects 7.4% GDP Growth for 2025-26

India's National Statistics Office released its First Advance Estimates on January 7, 2026, projecting real gross domestic product growth of 7.4 percent for the financial year 2025-26, an increase from the 6.5 percent recorded in the previous fiscal year. The estimate, which covers the period ending March 2026, highlights the economy's resilience amid global economic turbulence, including armed conflicts, rising protectionism, and currency pressures.

The projection surpasses the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 7.3 percent and exceeds the government's initial range of 6.3 to 6.8 percent. Nominal GDP, which includes inflation, is expected to expand by 8 percent, pushing the economy's size to 357.14 lakh crore rupees, or approximately 3.97 trillion dollars. Gross value added, a key measure of economic output, is anticipated to grow by 7.3 percent, up from 6.4 percent last year.

On the supply side, the services sector remains the primary driver, with financial, real estate, professional services, public administration, defense, and other services projected to grow by 9.9 percent. Trade, hotels, transport, communication, and broadcasting services are expected to rise by 7.5...