Gulf Crude Flows Near Prewar Levels, but Prices Stay High

Middle East crude shipments have recovered to nearly prewar levels, while exports of refined products remain markedly lower and oil prices stay elevated, according to estimates from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. The figures point to a partial recovery in Gulf energy flows, but shipping and conflict risks remain. JPMorgan analysts estimated that crude shipments from the Middle East had reached 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of prewar levels. Diesel and gasoline flows were about 3 million barrels a day, or 58% of their prewar level, the analysts said in a September 29 note. The figures show a sharper rebound in crude than in products, which are also affected by refinery outages and shipping constraints. Goldman Sachs estimated Persian Gulf oil exports, including clandestine shipments, at 23.3 million barrels a day over the prior week, in line with the 2025 average. The bank also assessed the global oil market as roughly balanced in September. Its estimate uses a different measure and baseline from JPMorgan’s, so the totals are not directly comparable.