Forecasters Predict Strong El Niño by Winter

Forecasters from major weather agencies expressed growing confidence this week that a strong El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures already 0.5 degrees Celsius above average in key regions and projections indicating it could become one of the most powerful events on record.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised its outlook, estimating a two-in-three chance of a strong or very strong El Niño by winter, potentially emerging within the next month and peaking between November and January. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts issued aligned predictions, with some models forecasting Niño 3.4 region temperatures exceeding 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal, surpassing the 2.4-degree peak of the 2015-2016 event. Anything above 1.5 degrees Celsius qualifies as strong, while over 2 degrees Celsius marks a very strong, or super, El Niño. Observations show rapid warming over recent weeks, accompanied by weakening trade winds, a hallmark of the shift from the recent La Niña pattern.

El Niño arises when trade winds slacken or reverse, allowing warm water to spread...