Economist Profits $128K Betting Against DOGE Cuts

Alan Cole, a 37-year-old senior economist at the Tax Foundation in Washington, D.C., turned his life savings into a substantial profit by wagering against the success of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, in reducing federal spending. In 2025, Cole placed a total bet of $342,195.63 on the prediction market platform Kalshi, predicting that quarterly federal spending would exceed levels from the fourth quarter of 2024. The official 2025 spending figures, released on February 20, confirmed his expectation, resulting in a payout of $470,300 and a net gain of more than $128,000, or about 37 percent.

Cole structured his wager across multiple sub-bets to limit downside risk, ensuring he would at least break even unless spending decreased by more than $50 billion. In reality, federal outlays rose by hundreds of billions of dollars over the year, with the lowest quarterly figure still $66 billion above the threshold needed for his bet to succeed. At its peak, Cole's positions represented over 3 percent of the $12 million in total bets on federal spending markets on Kalshi, allowing him to capitalize on wagers from those optimistic about DOGE's impact.