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Decision Desk HQ Projects Talarico Wins Texas Senate Race

Published 3 November 2026

Decision Desk HQ projected Democrat James Talarico the winner over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race, a result that would give Democrats the seat for the first time since 1988. The projection, made on election night, marks a major shift in a contest that had been closely watched nationally. The projection does not constitute a certified final count. One election-night snapshot, attributed to Decision Desk HQ, showed Talarico with 55.3% and Paxton with 43% when 68% of votes had been counted. Earlier returns, reported when about 30.1% of expected statewide votes were counted, showed Talarico at 58.4%, Paxton at 40.1% and independent candidate Ted Brown at 1.5%. Those figures reflect different counting stages, not final totals. Talarico, a Democratic state representative from Austin, is set to succeed Republican Sen. John Cornyn, according to one account of the result. His six-year Senate term is scheduled to begin January 3, 2027. The supplied reporting does not include certified statewide totals or confirmation that the official canvass is complete, so the projection should be distinguished from the final official result. The race was a high-profile contest...

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