Cook Political Report shifts Texas, Iowa races to Toss Up

The Cook Political Report on Thursday shifted its ratings for the Senate races in Texas and Iowa from Lean Republican to Toss Up, signaling a significantly more competitive landscape for midterm control. The nonpartisan election forecaster now rates the overall battle for Senate control as a Toss Up, downgrading the GOP's once-favored position.

The analysis, released on August 20, 2026, highlights two major vulnerabilities for the Republican Party. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a contentious primary, is dragging down the ticket with his history of scandals, lawsuits, and campaign missteps. Despite securing a former President's endorsement, Paxton faces persistent fundraising problems and deep frustration among state Republicans. His Democratic opponent, state Representative James Talarico, has run an energetic campaign and benefits from Paxton's low favorability ratings.

In Iowa, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is running for an open Senate seat being vacated by retiring Senator Joni Ernst. She faces Democratic state representative Josh Turek. Analysts point to economic pressures on Iowa farmers, driven by trade...