Brazil Runoff Polls Show Lula and Bolsonaro in Tight Race

Brazil’s presidential runoff between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remained too close to call in polls published ahead of the October 25 vote, with several surveys placing the candidates within their margins of error. The polling snapshots do not establish who will win. A Quaest survey of 2,154 people interviewed from October 17 to 20 put Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44%. Its two-point margin of error was wider than the one-point gap. The interviews began before the candidates’ October 18 debate and ended afterward. Other surveys also showed a narrow contest, although their results varied by institute, fieldwork dates and measure. PoderData’s poll, published October 22, gave Bolsonaro 49% and Lula 48% in voter intentions, with a 1.6-point margin of error. On valid votes, excluding blank and spoiled ballots, it put Bolsonaro ahead 51% to 49%. An AtlasIntel survey cited in reporting gave Bolsonaro 51.1% and Lula 48.9% of valid votes, a 2.2-point difference. Datafolha’s October 20-22 survey found that 49% approved of Lula’s government and 48% disapproved. With a two-point margin of error, that one-point difference amounts to a statistical tie. Approval...