Bipartisan Bill Bans Prediction Bets on Sensitive Government Events

U.S. Senators Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Representatives Greg Casar of Texas introduced bipartisan legislation on Tuesday aimed at prohibiting prediction market wagers on government actions and events where bettors possess advance knowledge or control of the outcome. The bill, known as the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act, or BETS OFF Act, targets bets related to national security matters including terrorism, war, assassinations, and other specified events.

The legislation responds to reports of unusual betting activity on platforms like Polymarket preceding recent U.S. military operations. Data presented by the lawmakers showed that, in the hours before joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February, 150 new accounts placed significant wagers predicting the strikes and related outcomes. Among them, 109 accounts bet more than $10,000 each, 16 exceeded $100,000, and one reached nearly $500,000. Similar patterns emerged before a U.S. operation in Venezuela on January 3 that resulted in the abduction of former President Nicolas Maduro, where a trader profited $400,000 from a timely bet on his ousting.