Bay of Bengal system could become depression by November 15

The India Meteorological Department forecasts that a low-pressure area will form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around November 13 and could intensify into a depression by November 15. Whether it develops into a cyclone, and where it might travel, remain uncertain.

The IMD said a cyclonic circulation had formed over the South Andaman Sea and was expected to generate the low-pressure area. It forecast that the system would become well marked around November 14 before potentially strengthening into a depression the following day. The department had issued no rainfall alerts for Andhra Pradesh at the time of its bulletin.

Skymet Weather said a cyclone could form around November 18 if environmental conditions support further intensification. It said the system’s track and any landfall were not yet clear, and that forecasts would become clearer as the system developed. A senior IMD official also said it was too early to predict cyclone formation.

Skymet assessed that the likelihood of the system sparing the Tamil Nadu and Andhra coasts was greater than other possible outcomes, while West Bengal and Bangladesh could face an increased risk of a cyclone strike. Those assessments remain...