Africa braces for $10-20 billion loss from super El Niño

A top climate expert at the African Development Bank has warned that an impending "super" El Niño could cost affected African countries between $10 billion and $20 billion in economic losses and trigger mass migration from the hardest-hit regions. The forecasted weather pattern, which could be one of the strongest ever recorded, threatens to exacerbate droughts, flooding, and storms across the continent, undermining food and water security, government finances, and banking sectors.

Anthony Nyong, the AfDB's director for climate change and green growth, stated that the event alone is projected to reduce the GDP of heavily affected countries by 1 to 2 percent on average, translating to the multibillion-dollar continental impact. This estimate marks the first such assessment from a major multilateral development bank regarding the current El Niño cycle. Nyong cautioned that the effects are unlikely to be a one-off, noting that drought conditions in the Sahel may persist and recovery from major storms, as seen after Cyclone Idai in Mozambique in 2019, can take years.

The warning comes after the bank's most recent economic forecasts in May, which predicted 4.2 percent growth for...