YouGov: Reform UK could lead in hung parliament with 311 seats

A comprehensive YouGov seat-by-seat projection published Friday found Nigel Farage's Reform UK on track to become Britain’s next prime minister if a general election were held now, predicting the party would win 311 of the 650 House of Commons seats. The MRP survey, based on 13,000 interviews conducted over three weeks, would leave Reform 15 seats short of an outright majority but positioned as the largest party in a hung parliament, the pollster said.

The projection gives Reform 27 percent of the national vote, Labour 21 percent, the Conservatives 17 percent and the Liberal Democrats 15 percent, with the Greens on 11 percent, the SNP 3 percent and Plaid Cymru 1 percent. Under that scenario Labour would fall to about 144 seats from roughly 411 won in last year’s landslide, losing more than two thirds of its MPs. Conservatives would slump to an estimated 45 seats, the poll indicates, a result described by some commentators as the party’s worst in modern history.

YouGov’s model anticipates heavy gains for Reform at Labour’s expense, with around 306 net gains compared with the last election. The projection lists a string of high-profile casualties across the main parties. It shows...