WTO raises 2026 goods trade forecast to 3.9%

The World Trade Organization raised its forecast for global merchandise-trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, citing stronger demand for artificial-intelligence-related goods and supply chains that adapted to disruption. The revised projection, published Thursday, is up from the WTO’s March forecast of 1.9%. Its 2027 forecast also increased, to 4.1% from 2.6%. These are projections for trade volume, not trade value. The WTO said trade in goods that enable artificial intelligence, including semiconductors and servers, rose 67% year on year in the first half of 2026. Those goods accounted for 47% of merchandise-trade growth over that period, according to the organization. The report linked the increase to investment in AI infrastructure and said the resulting demand helped offset pressure from disruptions in the Middle East. The upgrade contrasts with a weaker outlook for services. The WTO cut its 2026 services-trade growth forecast to 3.3%, from 4.8% six months earlier, citing higher fuel costs and softer travel activity. It expects services trade to grow 6.4% in 2027. Transport and travel services are especially exposed to fuel prices and regional disruption, the report said.