WTO Forecasts Slower Global Trade Growth in 2026 Amid Middle East Tensions

The World Trade Organization warned on March 19 that global trade growth will slow sharply in 2026 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, with prolonged conflict potentially exacerbating disruptions to energy supplies and shipping routes.

In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, the WTO projected merchandise trade volume to expand by 1.9 percent in 2026, down from a stronger-than-expected 4.6 percent in 2025. Commercial services trade is forecast to moderate to 4.8 percent growth, from 5.3 percent last year, while combined goods and services trade is expected to rise 2.7 percent, compared with 4.7 percent in 2025. Global economic output is anticipated to ease slightly to 2.8 percent, aligning closely with trade performance after outpacing it in the prior year.

The baseline outlook assumes stable energy markets, but WTO economists outlined a downside scenario tied to the ongoing conflict, which involves attacks on energy infrastructure in Iran and Qatar, as well as threats to key shipping lanes. If crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain elevated through 2026, merchandise trade growth could fall to 1.4 percent, services to 4.1 percent, and gross domestic...