VAT data error trims UK borrowing by about 3 billion ahead of Budget

The Office for National Statistics has corrected a data error in value added tax receipts that reduces reported government borrowing by about 3 billion pounds, a revision that gives Chancellor Rachel Reeves a small but timely boost as she prepares next month’s autumn Budget. The ONS said the correction lowers borrowing by roughly 200 million to 500 million pounds per month for the period affected, cutting borrowing for the year ending March 2025 by about 1 billion and reducing financial year-to-date borrowing from April to August by 2 billion.

The ONS said the error stemmed from an omission in the VAT cash receipts data supplied by HM Revenue and Customs, which HMRC has since adjusted by 2.4 billion pounds for April to August. James Benford, director general for economic and social statistics at the ONS, thanked HMRC for alerting the agency to the issue and said the correction would be incorporated into the next public sector finances release on October 21. Even after the revision, year-to-date borrowing of 81.8 billion remains higher than the 72.4 billion forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

The revision arrives as the chancellor faces a substantial fiscal gap at...