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Vance Leads Early 2028 GOP Polls as Rubio Gains

Published 21 March 2026

Vice President JD Vance leads early polling for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio has gained ground, signaling potential competition within the party as it looks ahead to the next election cycle.

A recent national poll of 952 Republicans and 225 right-leaning independents showed Vance as the top choice with 36 percent support among Republicans and 33 percent among independents. Donald Trump Jr. placed second at 19 percent overall, while Rubio garnered 9 percent, finishing third and emerging as the leading option among independents at 15 percent. The survey, which included 15 prominent conservative figures, also saw 14 percent of respondents unsure of their preference. Compared to an October poll, Vance's support dipped slightly from 38 percent among Republicans and 41 percent among independents, as did Trump Jr.'s from 26 percent and 13 percent, respectively. Rubio's backing rose from 4 percent among Republicans.

Demographic breakdowns highlighted shifts in preferences. Vance drew stronger support from men at 39 percent, reversing an earlier edge among women, while Rubio received 11 percent from female respondents compared to 8...

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