US waiver lets Iranian oil return, China as main buyer

A temporary U.S. sanctions waiver has opened a legal pathway for Iranian oil to re-enter global markets, but major Asian economies are signaling caution, with China positioned as the primary potential beneficiary. The 60-day authorization, which took effect on June 22 and expires on August 21, permits the production, sale, and delivery of Iranian oil and petrochemicals and crucially allows transactions to be settled in U.S. dollars.

The waiver is tied to broader diplomatic efforts following a recent memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. officials have described the move as an interim step designed to secure nuclear transparency and international inspections, with any further economic benefits linked to Iranian compliance. For Iran, the authorization offers a significant economic concession, potentially easing the costly and opaque networks it has relied on to export oil under sanctions.

Despite the opening, refiners in countries that were once major buyers, including India, Japan, and South Korea, are proceeding carefully. Industry analysts note these refiners have already secured supplies from other sources and view the two-month window as too short to...