US officials see Taiwan invasion before 2028 as unlikely

U.S. officials assess that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite a reported goal for China’s military to be capable of taking the island by force by 2027. The assessment, based on information from unnamed officials and people familiar with U.S. thinking, reflects a judgment about timing rather than a guarantee that Beijing will not use force. People familiar with the matter cited delays in military readiness amid the Chinese Communist Party’s anticorruption campaign as one reason for the revised outlook. They also said Beijing may be watching Taiwan’s 2028 election before deciding how to proceed. Some believe the risk of force could rise after that election if the Democratic Progressive Party wins another term, particularly if President Lai Ching-te is reelected. Those possibilities remain assessments, not announced Chinese plans. The 2027 benchmark is understood by analysts and officials as a target for military capability, not a confirmed invasion timetable. China has not publicly confirmed that President Xi Jinping issued such a readiness order, though it has not ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control.