US-Iran ceasefire breaks, Hormuz traffic halts, oil spikes

A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has broken down, leading to renewed military strikes, a near-standstill in traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz, and a spike in global oil prices. The escalation, which began with U.S. strikes on July 7 and Iranian retaliatory attacks on July 8, has cast serious doubt on diplomatic efforts to end a conflict that started in February 2026.

The immediate impact has been felt most acutely in the strategic waterway, a conduit for roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. As of July 14, observable commercial traffic through the strait had all but ceased, with only a handful of vessels transiting in recent days. Iran has reportedly been moving crude tankers with their transponders disabled. In response to the renewed hostilities, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a plan to impose a 20 percent toll on cargo passing through the strait, framing it as reimbursement for American-provided security. Analysts estimate such a fee could add roughly $30 million to the cost of moving oil on a supertanker.

The deteriorating security situation has driven oil prices to a one-month high, with Brent crude reaching...