US-Iran Ceasefire Announced Amid Betting Probe

President Donald Trump announced a two-week conditional ceasefire between the United States and Iran on April 7, 2026, halting direct hostilities that began on February 28 and requiring Iran to ensure the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal, mediated by Pakistan with involvement from Egypt and Turkey, came hours after several newly created accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket placed large bets anticipating the agreement, generating profits exceeding $660,000 and sparking investigations into possible insider trading.

The announcement followed Trump's ultimatum demanding Iranian compliance to avoid escalated military action. Under the terms, Iran must allow safe passage through the strait, which handles about 20 percent of global oil flows. Any disruption could void the truce. Talks aimed at a longer-term resolution are set for April 10 and 11 in Islamabad, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance leading the American delegation. Iran has proposed a 10-point plan for a permanent end to hostilities, including sanctions relief, compensation for damages, and U.S. withdrawal from the region. Trump described the proposal as a potential basis for...