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US Intel: Iran Nuclear Timeline Unchanged at Up to 1 Year

Published 4 May 2026

U.S. intelligence assessments show that the time Iran would need to produce a nuclear weapon remains unchanged at up to one year, despite two months of military strikes by the United States and Israel aimed in part at curbing Tehran's nuclear program, sources familiar with the matter said.

The assessments, current as of early May, match estimates from last summer following a U.S.-Israeli attack in June that damaged key Iranian nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan. Before those strikes, agencies had judged Iran capable of producing enough weapons-grade uranium and assembling a bomb in three to six months. The June operation, dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, destroyed or severely damaged the three main enrichment plants then in operation.

The more recent campaign, which began February 28 under President Donald Trump, has largely targeted Iran's conventional military forces, leadership and defense industrial base, according to the sources. Israel struck some nuclear-related facilities, including a uranium-processing site in late March. A follow-up effort called Operation Epic Fury further degraded Iran's military-industrial capabilities, White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales...

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