UK Population Projection Cut to 71M by 2034

The United Kingdom's population is projected to grow more slowly than previously estimated, reaching 71 million by mid-2034, with all net increase driven by international migration as deaths begin outnumbering births annually from mid-2026, according to the latest projections from the Office for National Statistics.

The 2024-based projections, released this week, forecast the population rising from 69.3 million in mid-2024 to 71 million in mid-2034, an addition of 1.7 million people. This marks a downward revision from last year's estimates, which predicted a 3 million increase to 72.2 million over the same period. The change reflects lower assumptions for net migration following a sharp recent decline, alongside falling fertility rates.

Natural population change, the difference between births and deaths, is expected to turn negative for the first time in modern UK history. Mid-2025 will be the last year with more births than deaths. From mid-2026 onward, the gap will widen, resulting in about 450,000 more deaths than births over the decade to mid-2034: roughly 6.4 million births against 6.85 million deaths. The UK's total fertility rate stands at around 1.4 children per woman,...