UK OBR Leaks Slower Long-Term Growth Forecast

The UK's official economic forecaster released its latest growth projections a day early due to a technical error, revealing slower expansion over the next four years despite an upgrade for the current one, ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' autumn Budget speech on Wednesday.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) document, which assesses the impact of government tax and spending policies, was briefly posted on its website before being removed. The OBR described the incident as a technical mistake and launched an internal investigation, promising to report findings to the Treasury and the Commons Treasury Committee. Officials emphasized that the full report would be published after Reeves delivers her address in the House of Commons at 12:30 p.m.

According to the forecast, gross domestic product (GDP) is now expected to grow by 1.5 percent this year, up from the OBR's previous estimate of 1 percent in March. However, projections for subsequent years were revised downward: 1.4 percent in 2026, compared to 1.9 percent previously; and 1.5 percent annually from 2027 to 2029, down from earlier figures of 1.8 percent, 1.7 percent, and 1.8 percent respectively. These adjustments...