UK fiscal watchdog warns debt unsustainable could triple

The UK's official fiscal watchdog has warned that the nation's public finances are on an "unsustainable and ever-rising path," requiring significant tax rises or spending cuts within the next decade to prevent government debt from spiraling out of control. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) issued the stark assessment in its annual Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report published on Tuesday, July 7, 2026.

The OBR's long-term projections indicate that, under current policies, public debt is likely to soar from its current level of around 95% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to approximately 300% of GDP by 2075-76. The report stresses that such a trajectory is not plausible, as it implies debt would "ultimately grow explosively," and future governments would be forced to intervene. However, the watchdog warned that delaying action will make the necessary fiscal tightening more costly and place a greater burden on future generations.

A primary driver of the projected debt increase is rising spending on public services, fueled by an ageing population. The OBR's baseline scenario forecasts that primary government spending, excluding debt interest, will rise from 40% of GDP in...